Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 1.116224 1.177616 1.241213 1.312147 1.389216 1.470593 1.563244
2026-01-11 1.030782 1.118962 1.214274 1.325484 1.452367 1.593440 1.763305
2026-01-18 0.969405 1.072913 1.188102 1.326838 1.490811 1.680244 1.918325
2026-01-25 0.935817 1.052504 1.185565 1.350217 1.550886 1.790744 2.104210
2026-02-01 0.882418 1.004258 1.145734 1.324400 1.547326 1.820957 2.189874
2026-02-08 0.831231 0.955089 1.101041 1.288468 1.526947 1.826311 2.240878
2026-02-15 0.798109 0.925538 1.077858 1.276700 1.534662 1.865875 2.337285
2026-02-22 0.774581 0.906224 1.065754 1.277356 1.557154 1.924568 2.462202
2026-03-01 0.744308 0.877005 1.039605 1.258094 1.551565 1.944208 2.532387
2026-03-08 0.710076 0.841394 1.003728 1.224142 1.523976 1.931308 2.553443
2026-03-15 0.690018 0.822907 0.988855 1.216900 1.531730 1.967191 2.647839
2026-03-22 0.679810 0.816502 0.989117 1.229521 1.566971 2.043355 2.808097
2026-03-29 0.660226 0.797939 0.973569 1.221104 1.573781 2.080987 2.915489
2026-04-05 0.649675 0.790816 0.972875 1.233038 1.610232 2.164751 3.104514
2026-04-12 0.635866 0.778792 0.964974 1.234254 1.630714 2.225095 3.259831
2026-04-19 0.630192 0.777286 0.971067 1.255262 1.681243 2.334823 3.509899
2026-04-26 0.609305 0.754586 0.947230 1.232063 1.663527 2.334696 3.565146
2026-05-03 0.586409 0.728520 0.917920 1.199736 1.630176 2.307070 3.567466
2026-05-10 0.572086 0.713748 0.903845 1.189139 1.629835 2.333288 3.671746
2026-05-17 0.562235 0.704799 0.897584 1.189730 1.646837 2.389109 3.837385
2026-05-24 0.547074 0.688091 0.879821 1.172375 1.634332 2.393794 3.903026
2026-05-31 0.528363 0.666019 0.853848 1.141754 1.599139 2.357303 3.882656
2026-06-07 0.518033 0.655403 0.843967 1.135217 1.602687 2.388500 4.003356